Proposed mass deportation policies and large-scale federal actions could carry significant economic and employment consequences for the regional and national labor markets, according to recent data released by economic research organizations examining the potential outcomes of these policies.
On a national scale, the Brookings Institution reported that there would be approximately 668,000 jobs lost nationwide from 2025 arrests. Within the state of Arizona, the potential workforce disruptions are particularly pronounced because the Economic Policy Institute stated that immigrant Arizonans account for one of every six workers in the state.
Specific industries within the state rely heavily on this labor force. According to data from the Economic Policy Institute, immigrants comprise 37% of agricultural workers in Arizona. Beyond agricultural employment, the Economic Policy Institute noted that immigrant households in Arizona earn about $39.4 billion annually, contributing significantly to the state's broader economic circulation. Furthermore, the Economic Policy Institute reported that Arizona is home to about 76,000 immigrant entrepreneurs who operate businesses across the region.
Looking toward broader federal enforcement scenarios, the Economic Policy Institute estimated that four million deportations could cost Arizona roughly 141,000 jobs. In addition to employment and earnings, tax contributions also form a substantial part of the economic picture. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that undocumented immigrants paid roughly $704 million in state and local taxes.